NEWS CENTER

Perspective: the ups and downs of the cement market in 2011


Release time:

Oct 11,2011

Judging from the data from January to August, the growth rate of cement production in the market in 2011 has continuously caused disputes in the industry, but it is basically based on the impression of the past market. The following digital cement will track the trajectory of the data to make an interpretation, in order to more clearly analyze the current situation of the cement industry in 2011. The output of cement and clinker in 1. was 1.32 billion tons from January to August 2011, up 18.42 percent from the same period last year. The suspense of breaking through 2.1 billion tons this year is not big. The output of clinker was 0.846 billion tons, up 17.94 percent from the same period last year, which is 64.11 percent of the cement output, which means that the whole industry

Looking at the market from January to August data

The growth rate of cement production in 2011 has continuously caused disputes in the industry, but it is basically based on the impression of the past market. The following digital cement will track the trajectory of the data to make an interpretation, in order to more clearly analyze the current situation of the cement industry in 2011.

1. cement and clinker output

From January to August 2011, the output of cement sludge was 1.32 billion tons, up 18.42 year on year. The suspense of breaking through 2.1 billion tons this year is not big. The output of clinker was 0.846 billion tons, up 17.94 year on year, 64.11 of the cement output, which means that the blending ratio of the whole industry was about 36%. The output of new dry clinker was 0.638 billion tons, up 18.45 year on year, while the output of cement increased simultaneously, A net increase of nearly 0.1 billion tons over last year.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

Cement production in 2. area

As can be seen from Table 2, the regions with higher growth rates are concentrated in the southwest and northwest regions, while the growth rates in Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are relatively low. Both Beijing and Shanghai experienced negative growth.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

The top three regions in cement production compete with each other, and Shandong Province won the first place again from January to August, but the position at the end of the year cannot be determined for the time being; among the top 10 regions in production, except Sichuan, the rest are concentrated in the eastern and central regions; cement growth in the southwest region is rapid, with the exception of Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing and Guizhou are all in the middle reaches of the country; except Shaanxi in the northwest, the output is not high.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

New capacity of clinker in 3. region

In the face of the international financial crisis in 2008, the state stepped in to 4 trillion investment to rescue the market, and the cement industry was the first to bear the brunt and was the biggest beneficiary. Many investors were optimistic about the cement industry, setting off the most exciting part of the construction of magnificent cement projects.

2009: Southwest Investment Line has the largest number, with a production capacity of 55.89 million tons; 2005-2008 was a period of high growth in the cement market in the central region, and it ended in 2009. In that year, the clinker production capacity was 59.4 million tons, ranking first among the six major regions. Times have changed in East China, and the new production capacity has entered a slowdown stage.

2010: The proportion of backward production capacity in the southwest region is large. Taking the heavy task of post-disaster reconstruction in Sichuan as an opportunity, the concentrated construction of key projects in the southwest has created high demand, cement is in short supply, and prices are rising like sesame seeds. Cement people have never seen such a good market. A private enterprise in Sichuan was not acceptable. Within three years, it built five 5000 t/d production lines, which was enough to witness the hot scene of the cement market at that time. In that year, Southwest China took the lead again, putting 71 lines into production, with a clinker production capacity of 76.07 million tons; North China came from behind, putting 40 lines into production, with a clinker production capacity of 47.71 million tons, an increase of nearly 30 million tons over the previous year; the new production capacity in Northwest China increased by nearly 20 million tons compared with last year.

Production capacity under construction: 4 trillion is gradually coming to an end, and the construction of large-scale cement production lines will basically land this year and next, entering the final sprint stage. The northwest replaced the southwest, with 74 lines under construction and a clinker production capacity of 77.24 million tons. It is worth noting that East China has sprung up with 42 lines and a clinker production capacity of 72.7 million tons, which has attracted great attention both inside and outside the industry.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

In the southwest, the annual new production capacity exceeds 50 million tons, with a total new production capacity of nearly 0.3 billion tons. The market pressure has already appeared at the end of 2009;

In the northwest, the new production capacity is increasing step by step and will reach its peak in 2012. However, the price of Shaanxi bottomed out in 2011, indicating that the reshuffle is imminent;

In central and southern China, the total new production capacity is 0.26 billion tons, which is only lower than that in southwest China. The first-line large enterprises have layouts-China Resources, Conch and Taini in South China, Tianrui, Zhonglian, Tongli, Huaxin, Nanfang and Conch in central and southern regions;

In East China, the new production capacity in 2009 and 2010 was moderate. Taking advantage of the power restriction at the end of 2010, the strong price increase once again seized the excellent opportunity to make the industry have a new understanding of the market;

Northeast, the market continues to be depressed, new capacity momentum is not large. In 2010, the market operation in East China brought dawn to Northeast China. The biggest market advantage of Northeast China is that the new production capacity is low, which has little impact on the market. It can curb the vicious competition between the existing production capacity. The market order is gradually on the right track. In 2011, the cement price recovered;

In North China, the new production capacity has been climbing continuously in the past two years. In 2010, the clinker production capacity was 47.7 million tons, and in 2011, there were still 55.7 million tons of clinker production capacity under construction. Large enterprises have gradually strengthened their control over the region. Jidong, Jinyu, China Resources, Shanshui, Zhonglian and Mengxi each showed their talents.

4. large groups grow

The expansion of large groups in recent years has been colorful, and the development momentum of the three central enterprises is unstoppable. Although Conch and Jidong have been repeatedly reported acquisition news, the two leaders still go their own way and move in a planned way in the established strategic direction. Conch added 65 million tons of clinker capacity after 2009, ranking first. The new production capacity of China's building materials and materials exceeds 40 million tons. Jidong and China Resources are both above 30 million tons. Red Lion clinker production capacity is 30 million tons, ranking 9th, but the total new production capacity after 2009 is 16.43 million tons. Shanshui accelerated construction in 2011, ranking 7th.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

5. large group clinker output

The expansion of production capacity is bound to affect the market share. According to incomplete statistics, the output of the top 20 plants in the country from January to August was 9.6 billion tons, an increase of 21.91 percent over the same period last year, higher than the growth of clinker in the country, accounting for 46.44 percent of the country.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

Conch, at the top of the list, accounts for 60% of the group's clinker output in East China and is its most important harvest area. Among them, the clinker output in Anhui is 42 million tons, accounting for 52% of the group's. Affected by energy conservation and emission reduction, the output is the same as that in the same period last year. The output in South China exceeded 20 million tons, accounting for 25% of the group. The total output of Conch in East China and South China is more than 70 million tons, and the market price is higher than that of the whole country, which has laid a solid foundation for Conch's performance this year. Conch's output in the west is 11.5 million tons, a net increase of 8 million tons over the same period of last year. Conch's strategy in the northwest of China is to "put new production capacity into production as soon as possible to meet the standard and gain market share", which is incisive and incisive performance in Shaanxi.

China's building materials, clinker output ranked second in the country, an increase of 6.41, far below the national average, and other large groups have a big gap. In the war tide of the return of industry value, the industry has realized the transformation from quantity to profit. China building materials set an example and set an example in the industry. Zhonglian Cement, a subsidiary of China Building Materials, has a negative year-on-year growth in output, which has contributed to the industry.

In eastern Hebei, under the guidance of the "regional leadership" strategy in recent years, North China is the core region. The output of Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia has increased by more than 40%, and the market share has accounted for more than 40% of eastern Hebei; three clinker bases in Chongqing It has been fully put into production, and the output has increased the fastest, with a year-on-year increase of more than 3 times; Shaanxi's output has increased by 28% year-on-on-on-year, and Liaoning, increase and loss offset. The annual output increased by 38%, ranking in the forefront of enterprises.

Sinoma, clinker output 25 million tons, up 46% YoY. In the face of market changes, Sinoma entered the northwest at the best time and won a lot of money. The northwest region is an important regional market of the group, accounting for 66% of the group's total output. Among them, Gansu's output contributes the most, accounting for 32% of the total output, followed by Xinjiang, accounting for 18% of the total output. Northwest China will inevitably encounter the challenge of market cycle, but superior enterprises will choose the opportunity to win from the market in both the upper and lower markets. In addition to the northwest, Sinoma is widely distributed, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and Inner Mongolia all involved, of which Guangdong is the third, accounting for 18% of the total output.

China Resources, a dark horse in the industry, has increasingly shown its advantages in many industries. Over the past few years, the cement scale has soared. The main market is in South China, with clinker output of 24.6 million tons, up 36% year-on-year. At present, it has rapidly entered Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan-Guizhou through mergers and acquisitions, with rapid momentum.

6. industry profit

From January to July 2011, the national cement profit was 55.8 billion yuan, a net increase of 34 billion yuan from 219 yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 1.56 times. This year, the profit of the cement industry has basically broken through the 90 billion and will challenge the 100 billion.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

From the national point of view, this year is the volume and price rise, the industry's profit margins are considerable. East China has the highest profit contribution rate, accounting for 43% of the country's total, which is much higher than the proportion of output, while the southwest has the lowest profit proportion in the country, and the income cannot make ends meet. This high and low reflects the market orientation-the rise in East China is the market The consensus has led to the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand, and the return of value has been guaranteed.

Anhui ranks first in profits. Conch is the biggest beneficiary in the market this year. Among the top 10 regions in profits, East China occupies 5 seats and Central and South China occupies 4 seats. The phenomenon of cement production and profit upside down in the east and west has been reversed. From the 2011 output, production capacity, profit three sets of data reflect the two trends of the market:

In the eastern region, through the stage of market rise, fall and integration, the market leading force of large enterprises has been gradually strengthened, and the market has been transformed from volume to price;

The production capacity in the western region is being released at a high level, the demand is stabilizing, the pressure on the market is increasing, the price war in some areas is starting, the integration of the market has just begun, and the domestic first-class groups are waiting for the opportunity to gather in the region.

透视:起伏的2011年水泥市场

Concluding remarks

This year, the cement market is making a fuss around the price. This is the progress of the industry. The change of concept from scale to profit has begun to be reflected in substantive actions. However, the current market background also shows that the rapid development of the market in recent years has brought about the rapid growth of production capacity, and the pressure on the market is increasing. If the No. 38 restriction on production capacity is still effective, it is optimistic that the market supply and demand will gradually improve after 2013, but it also depends on whether the demand will maintain stable growth.

Limiting production and ensuring prices, and survival of the fittest are two means to curb excess capacity. Which method is adopted mainly depends on the market environment-the environment will not remain unchanged, and there are many variables. However, there will still be 0.2 billion tons of new clinker production capacity put in this year, and the market pressure will be even greater. However, we can see that 0.255 billion tons of new production capacity was added in 2010, which had an impact on the market. However, the profit performance of the industry this year has greatly exceeded that of last year. In addition to the reasons for this year's market, what is more important is that the pressure changes the driving force, and the cement industry's ability to control the market has been greatly strengthened. In the past "Tenth Five-Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", a number of large enterprise groups have been cultivated. As the market gradually matures, the future is mainly a game between demand slowdown and capacity release control. The group's ability to control the market is strengthened to maintain the profits that the industry deserves.