NEWS CENTER

National cement prices have fallen again and again, the market will pick up or until the second half of next year.


Release time:

Dec 14,2011

In recent weeks, the national cement prices have repeatedly fallen and consolidated, which has cast a shadow on the market next year. On December 13, the reporter learned from the Cement Association, Digital Cement Network and other aspects that last week, led by Sichuan and Qinghai, the national cement price fell by 1.12 month-on-month. This is the third consecutive week of cement price consolidation and decline. Coupled with the expected slowdown in macroeconomic growth, industry insiders expect the cement market to pick up at least until the second half of next year. Sichuan and Qinghai led the decline It is reported that last week's decline in cement prices in Sichuan and Qinghai was the main reason for the decline in cement prices across the country. Among them, Qinghai Xining announced

In recent weeks, the national cement prices have repeatedly fallen and consolidated, which has cast a shadow on the market next year.

On December 13, the reporter learned from the Cement Association, Digital Cement Network and other aspects that last week, led by Sichuan and Qinghai, the national cement price fell by 1.12 month-on-month. This is the third consecutive week of cement price consolidation and decline. Coupled with the expected slowdown in macroeconomic growth, industry insiders expect the cement market to pick up at least until the second half of next year.

Sichuan and Qinghai led the decline

It is reported that the decline in cement prices in Sichuan and Qinghai last week was the main reason for the decline in cement prices across the country. Among them, Qinghai Xining announced the price of winter storage, compared with the previous price drop is larger, thus pulling down the national average price. At present, cement P.O42.5 in Xining area is 290 yuan/ton and P.C32.5 bags are 260 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of cement in Chengdu, Sichuan fell by 30 yuan/ton, which further depressed the performance of the national cement market.

"Due to the failure of market demand to form effective support after the previous price increase, and the coordination among enterprises is not mature enough, under the pressure of inventory, the price of cement in Chengdu, Sichuan Province has been adjusted back." Industry analysts said.

A number of people in the industry told reporters that the real estate industry is strictly regulated and high pressure is not changed, and the trend of destocking and investment reduction in the property market is obvious, which will cast a shadow on the market next year, but both industry and market participants are still optimistic.

"I don't think cement prices will fall much next year." Lei Qiazhi, president of the China Cement Association, pointed out in an interview with reporters that even assuming that the annual GDP growth rate during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is 7%, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment is 15%, the demand for cement will increase. 3%-4%. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the peak demand for cement will reach 2 billion tons. From this, it is estimated that China's cement supply and demand are basically balanced during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, so it should have confidence in the market.

"In most cases, the trend of demand growth determines the trend of cement prices." The analysis report of Societe Generale Securities pointed out that with the establishment of the inflection point of CPI, the active destocking of the real estate industry will continue, the investment growth rate will continue to decline, and the low growth rate of cement demand will appear in the second quarter of next year.

Cement industry profits will exceed 100 billion this year

"According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of October, the cement industry has achieved a profit of 84.6 billion billion yuan in 2011, exceeding the total profit of last year (71.2 billion for the whole year of last year). It is expected that the profit of the whole year in 2011 will exceed 100 billion yuan, and the whole year's rise in volume and price is the key to the profit growth of the cement industry." Digital cement network analysts pointed out that the increase in profits of cement enterprises in 2011 has provided sufficient market funds for the market operation of cement enterprises in 2012, which is conducive to market stability. Kong Xiangzhong, vice president and secretary-general of the China Cement Association, analyzed and pointed out that the "Twelfth Five-Year" development plan for the cement industry proposes that the industrial added value of cement enterprises above designated size will increase by more than 10% annually by 2015. "This goal itself can be achieved." "Cement as an investment-driven consumption product, to maintain an average annual growth of 10% of industrial value added, in the case of total demand unchanged, the static view is to increase the price of products year by year, which is in the interests of the industry. From the last two years of industry consolidation after the impact on the profitability of enterprises, this indicator is achievable." Kong Xiangzhong further added that the elimination of backward production capacity and merger and reorganization are still the main theme of the cement industry next year, which is not only conducive to the balance of supply and demand, but also conducive to the stability of market prices.

"According to the planning objectives, the production capacity concentration of the top 10 enterprises during the 12th Five Year Plan period should reach more than 35%, which actually reflects the process speed of enterprise merger and reorganization." Kong Xiangzhong pointed out that from the perspective of the merger and reorganization strategy of China Building Materials Group, China National Materials Group, China Resources Cement, Jidong Cement and other large enterprises, the capacity concentration of the top 10 cement enterprises at the end of the 12th five-year Plan can even be optimistically seen at 50%, that is, the average size of large enterprises is about 0.12 billion tons, while China Building Materials and Anhui Conch are currently more than 0.1 billion tons.

As far as reporters know, CNBM will announce the establishment of Southwest Cement, a joint restructuring platform for the southwest region, in the near future. The registered capital of the platform alone will reach 10 billion, and the number of integrated enterprises may reach more than 100 in the future.

"Referring to the positive changes that Southern Cement has brought to the regional market before, the emergence of Southwest Cement must stabilize the price of cement market in the region." Senior cement expert Liu Zuo Yi said.